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Key Takeaways
- Post-halving day 200 historically marks the inflection between accumulation and parabolic phase.
**Cycle map:** The April 2024 halving was day 0. We are currently at day ~200. Historically (2012, 2016, 2020), the 200-day mark has been the inflection from sideways/accumulation into the parabolic leg.
**This cycle's quirks:**
1. Spot ETF flows ate the supply shock 6 months early
2. Macro liquidity (BOJ + Fed cuts) layers on top
3. MicroStrategy and corporate buyers add structural bid
**Risk to the thesis:** historical analogs all happened during loose monetary policy. A surprise hawkish pivot breaks the pattern.
*Not financial advice. Crypto is high risk.*
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